I must first lead off by stating I am not for popular vote being installed in the stead of the Electoral College. I believe that would just change the focus from swing states to large urban ones and doesn’t address the real issue: is the Electoral College properly representing the will of the whole country?
Posted above is the electoral college as it stands in 2024. To win, a candidate must reach 270. Now Posted below are the results of the previous two elections: 2016 and 2020
As anyone could tell you whose been around a while, swing states have been key to both of these elections, and have been so for far longer. My concern would be that this enables candidates to focus mostly on issues important to those 10 or so states while being able to rest on their laurels for the rest.
The Proposal
Each individual state will divide their allotted electoral college votes by the percentage of votes received. Here’s how that will work:
1. Electoral college will be divided by each state. For example, if one candidate won 60% of the vote in Colorado, which has 10 votes, they would receive 6 of the votes. A second candidate who won 40% would get 4.
2. To receive an electoral vote, a candidate much reach a proportional percentage threshold. This will effect small and large states the most. For example, Wyoming only has 3 votes to give. So, in order to get a vote, a candidate must reach 33.3% of the vote. If they get 32%, still no EV for them. On the flipside, California has 55 meaning a candidate needs to only get 1.81% of the vote to earn one.
3. Votes cannot be divided, so any extra percentage goes to the winner of the state. For example, if a candidate wins 51% of the vote in Colorado, they get 6 EVs instead of 5.1. If there is a direct, vote for vote tie in a state that does not have an even number, the Governor of that state will cast a tiebreaker vote.
Supporting Argument
So what does this look like, and why do it at all? Under this system, every state is now a possible source of votes for a candidate, and every last one counts. This greatly enfranchises voters in all states, including deeply red and blue ones. It also gives more opportunity for 3rd party and independent candidates to succeed.
To provide an example of how this would effect elections, I simulated both the 2016 and 2020 elections and these were the results:
2016 would see Trump still win, but he would only do so by 2 Votes. Five separate Candidates, 4 from parties and 1 independent, would see themselves win votes. Trump would have earned 18 votes from California, which would have been more than from any other state including Texas, which would have given him 16. Only 2 states were total shut outs, with Trump claiming all three votes from both Wyoming and North Dakota.
2020 would also see Biden still win, but instead of winning 306 to 232, his advantage would have shrunken by 25 Electoral Votes to 281. In my estimation, a much more accurate portrayal of voter sentiment at the time.
Put simply, this model would give a lot of voice to people who haven’t had a real say in Presidential elections in decades while still preserving balance between the large and small states as the founding fathers intended.
If you made it this far, thank you for reading, and I would appreciate your input.