I. Intro
I recommend that the Trump Administration invest in the people of Iran as a countermeasure to the Islamic Republic. U.S.-Iran relations today are primarily nonexistent and are a continuation of the rift between the two nations marked by the 1979 Iran Revolution. Additionally, Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism, and the Iran Threat Network (ITN) is Iran’s most potent asymmetric capability at its disposal. While the Islamic Republic poses a significant risk to U.S. and coalition forces, it faces a series of domestic challenges that reflect generational shifts in the Iranian populace. For instance, Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody last year sparked protests across the nation, with demonstrators chanting “Woman, life, freedom” in response to the oppressive Islamic regime. Millennials and Generation Z were at the forefront of these protests and are described by media outlets as a revolutionary force who are not afraid to express themselves or shake up the status quo of the Islamic Republic. The Trump Administration needs to take into consideration the changing demographics of Iran and the new generation who grew up during the social media era and favors the U.S. more than the conservative clerical establishment.
II. Background
U.S.-Iran relations have been adversarial since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which deposed the American-friendly Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. In 1980, the U.S. and Iran severed diplomatic ties and have not established a formal relationship since. In 1984, the U.S. State Department designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The country continues to support Lebanon-based terrorist group Hizballah, Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza, and various terrorist and militant groups across the world. Iran’s terrorist network is known as the ITN. It comprises thousands of fighters from the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force serves as the primary point of contact for these terrorist groups, providing them with training, weaponry, and funds to promote Iranian regional objectives and undermine U.S. forces in the Middle East and American national security overall. In 2019, President Trump officially designated IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), underscoring the implications of any entity conducting business with the IRGC.
It is crucial for the U.S. government to distinguish between the Iranian people and the Iranian regime. In September 2022, protests abrupted across Iran in response to the death of an Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, who was arrested by Iran’s morality police for her noncompliance with the country’s Islamic dress code. According to Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) figures, more than 19,200 people were arrested, with the average age of arrested protestors being fifteen years old. The Deputy Commander of the IRGC claimed that Iranian youth were encouraged by social media and foreign influence to “sacrifice themselves in the protests,” blaming the U.S. and Israel for publicly fueling the unrest in the country. Contrary to his claims, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change polls reveal that most Iranian citizens supported the protests, with 83 percent of individuals between the ages of 20 and 29 supporting a regime change. To stifle the anti-government protests, the Iranian government repeatedly shut down mobile internet connections and disrupted the services to Western social media applications. In response to the Islamic Regime’s censorship, the U.S. Department of Treasury issued Iran General License (GL) D-2 to increase support for internet freedom in Iran, authorizing technology companies to offer the Iranian people more options for secure platforms and services. The Trump Administration should continue to leverage these diplomatic tools to support Iranian citizens, empowering them to challenge the Islamic Regime from within.
III. Recommendations
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The U.S. should facilitate the flow of information from the outside world into Iran. The U.S. can do this by providing cyber tools that Iranians can use to ensure their anonymity online and circumvent the regime’s internet monitoring efforts.
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Establish a privately funded and operated multimedia company targeting the Iranian populace, delivering news and information to the Iranian people on how a free and democratic Iran will usher in economic prosperity and benefit the Iranian people.
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Pressure U.S. allies to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, raising the stakes of dealing with the regime.
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Strengthen regional relationships with allies, pressure regional governments to contain Iran, and target ITN factions destabilizing their respective areas of interest.
IV. Conclusion
Iran continues to pose a threat to U.S. national security and U.S. forces deployed to the Middle East. Iran also continues to sponsor terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East to destabilize regional U.S. partners like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Trump Administration should cut off terrorist financing in the Middle East and worldwide by targeting the entity that funds them – the Islamic Republic of Iran. By strengthening regional relationships with allies and pressuring governments to target ITN entities destabilizing their countries, the U.S. can help mitigate risks to civilian populations and U.S. forces. Additionally, the U.S. should pressure U.S. allies to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization to raise the stakes for any country willing to do business with the regime. Finally, the regime has been suffering from internal pressure, with civil unrest and anti-government protests reverberating across the nation. The U.S. government must acknowledge this distinction between the people of Iran and the current Iranian government and realize that the people of Iran are starting to demand change and liberalization of the regime. The U.S. Department of Treasury’s issuing of Iran GL D-2 is a perfect example of a successful U.S. response to the Iranian government’s crackdown on civilian protestors following Mahsa Jina Amini’s death and reaffirm to the Iranian people that they have U.S. support. The U.S. should continue to leverage these opportunities to invest in the Iranian people and support them in their efforts to challenge the Islamic Regime.