On the presumption that Kennedy and Musk make inroads removing hurdles and streamlining policies and regulations, I prompted ChatGPT to generate a timeline & cost analysis to move 100% of US agriculture (animal, aquaculture, and crops) to regenerative practices starting in 3 years. That 3 years allowing time to work on policies and regulations. This is a 20 year process with concerted regulatory improvements and 30 years without. I suggest this be written in such a way to prevent it from being dismantled or hamstrung by future antagonistic parties and provided with unassailable funding. The point is to have less regulation, less “ban the things”, less interference, and incentivize the things we want more of.
This proposal outlines a comprehensive strategy for the U.S. to transition entirely to regenerative agricultural practices across both crop and animal farming sectors with a path to end all agriculture subsidies without harming farmers. The goal is to create a sustainable, resilient, and economically viable agricultural system, while minimizing environmental degradation and reducing dependency on subsidies and artificial inputs.
The transition would be implemented over a 20-year timeline, with non-renewable 10-year subsidies to cover initial training, infrastructure, income mitigation, and support for both farmers and agriculture support industries.
- Initial Adoption Phase (Years 1-3):
- Animal Farming: Shift 10-15% of livestock to regenerative practices, supporting farmers with subsidies for pasture development, soil health enhancement, and infrastructure adjustments (e.g., rotational grazing systems).
- Crop Farming: Begin with 10-15% of crop farmland converted to regenerative practices, such as cover cropping, reduced tillage, and integrated pest management.
- Industry Subsidies: Support industries like composting, animal feed, and farm equipment manufacturers to pivot to regenerative-compatible products and services. This includes transitioning to local feed production, manure management, and low-impact, multi-use farming equipment.
- Scaling and Optimization Phase (Years 4-8):
- Animal Farming: Increase regenerative livestock practices to 30-50% of the market, with expanded regional slaughterhouses and distribution facilities to support localized meat production and reducing transportation impacts.
- Crop Farming: Expand regenerative crop practices to 30-50% of farmland, enhancing soil quality, yield, and biodiversity.
- Support Industry Development: Further incentivize the adaptation of equipment manufacturing, organic soil inputs, and transportation logistics, aligning them with regenerative models.
- Broad Adoption (Years 9-15):
- Animal Farming: Transition 75-90% of livestock systems to regenerative practices. This includes widespread use of integrated grazing, rotational systems, and eco-friendly manure processing.
- Crop Farming: Extend regenerative farming to cover 75-90% of farmland, stabilizing yields and reducing synthetic input needs as soil health improves.
- Self-Sustaining Support Industries: Related industries (e.g., biostimulant production, regional transport, composting services, cover and forage crop seed production) achieve stability without subsidies, fully pivoting to support regenerative agricultural systems.
- Full Adoption (Years 16-20):
- Achieve 100% regenerative practices across both animal and crop agriculture sectors, with the agricultural system becoming self-sustaining and subsidy-free.
The estimated government expenditure to implement this shift is $93-128 billion over 10 years, divided as follows:
- Infrastructure Development: $20-28 billion to support processing plants, composting facilities, local slaughterhouses, and equipment upgrades for both crop and livestock farms.
- Training and Education: $10-15 billion to educate farmers and associated industry workers on regenerative methods, animal welfare, and ecosystem-based crop and livestock management.
- Transitional Farmer Support: $40-50 billion to mitigate income loss during the transition and to cover costs for regenerative inputs such as cover crop seeds and organic amendments.
- Research and Development: $10-14 billion to fund advancements in regenerative crop and livestock practices, soil biology, and resilient crop strains.
- Industry Pivot Support: $10-14 billion for businesses in fertilizers, equipment, and waste processing to pivot towards regenerative-compatible products and services.
- Consumer Education and Market Development: $3-5 billion to develop consumer awareness around regenerative agriculture, promoting demand for these products and aiding farmers in market access.
Expected Outcomes and Benefits
- Environmental Benefits: Reduced soil erosion, improved water retention, enhanced biodiversity, and improved crop severe weather resilience.
- Economic Resilience: With healthy soil and diversified crops, farms would be more resilient to economic and climatic shocks, reducing long-term subsidy needs and lowering future disaster recovery costs.
- Health and Public Savings: Healthier food production methods and less chemical runoff could lower public health costs associated with pollution and pesticide exposure.
- Stable Industry Transition: Support industries like farm equipment, organic fertilizer production, and logistics will experience a structured, stable transition, minimizing disruption and providing long-term growth opportunities.