Be that as it may, it won’t be talked about that way in the cultural media landscape.
Objectivity and honesty aren’t the qualities for how these bills get represented and discussed.
Consider the “Don’t say Gay” bill in Florida. That rhetoric completely mischaracterizes the bill. This bill likewise be mischaracterized. I believe it will be characterized as “this bill is their first step toward a complete abortion ban, it that harms women and destroys their choice, and it must be stopped”. It doesn’t matter what the bill actually does.
No I didn’t, I said when you pass legislation you have to consider how it is going to be reacted to. It’s not the same thing.
Lots of legislation gets passed all the time that most of the American people disagree with. The question is what will “stick” legislatively and what will become a back and forth power struggle.
You claim this will lower the temperature of the American people because they basically agree with you on the policy. I’m saying the exact opposite will happen because the powers within the Democratic Party will activate to twist people’s minds around and vilify this bill because they can’t afford to lose abortion as a wedge issue. They aren’t trying to help the American people, they are trying to win power. They lose on this issue, and they have nothing left - therefore they also have nothing left to lose over this. I hope you consider a group of wealthy and empowered people (which they are) with nothing to lose are a very dangerous thing?
No, they will be up in arms about the fact someone besides them passed a bill regarding abortion at the federal level. They don’t care what the bill actually says or does.
And I don’t speak for the President. Which God willing is Trump with the veto power.
And I don’t speak for all the pro-life advocacy groups.
I didn’t say they couldn’t get it passed, I said I don’t believe they can. I am looking at the forces at play and making odds. That’s not the same thing. Most specifically, I don’t believe either side can get 60 votes in the Senate to get any bill regarding abortion passed the filibuster; and I further don’t believe the Democrats can get enough votes from within their own party to end the filibuster to bypass it.
Even further I believe that if the Democratic Party ends the filibuster to pass the WHPA or something like it, it will be the end of the Democratic Party (and the few sane voices in that camp know it). The third order effect of bypassing the filibuster would be political suicide on their part as they will lose all credibility and trust to govern. Control of the federal government is not a scepter of power to be used as a cudgel to force your political opponents into submission.
And let’s say they did manage to rig the system in a way that got that bill all the way through into law and upheld by the Supreme Court, and am 100% confident that law would eventually be undone, just like Roe v. Wade was.
You can disagree with me and say that you believe I’m wrong about them, but please don’t claim my concerns are disingenuous. If I wasn’t genuinely interested in seeing this enacted and “stick” I certainly wouldn’t waste my time here attempting to provide thoughtful responses.
Umm… you’re making my argument about this for me…
I am well aware of what they are doing and exactly how they are doing it.
It’s that very fact that has me saying it doesn’t matter what this bill actually does or says.
What makes you think they will treat this idea with any respect whatsoever?
They don’t want the problem solved and anything that weakens their ability to use it as a wedge issue will be fought with the full force of whatever twisted and manipulated vitriol they can get the mainstream media and news outlets to produce for them. I would bet if they somehow figure out this was the source of the bill and that you were its creator they will paint you as a radical pro-life terrorist.
It’s entirely dishonest of them to misrepresent the policy and smear you in that way, but you’re touching their most sacred cow, and basically the last sacred cow they have left.
Right, so play chess against yourself for a moment.
If you were them, and you saw that this policy was going to do exactly what is claimed here, and you were going to use all the same tactics that they have successfully been able to use, and you had all the media outlet resources that are ready to tell whatever egregious and deceitful lies you want on your behalf for you that they have shown they have, plus an effectively endless supply of billionaires to fund you, and you didn’t want to lose the one issue you had left to drive your voting base to the polls, what would you do? How would you go about stopping this before it destroyed all your remaining power?
I believe we can take that wedge issue power away from them simply by saying “No one gets to pass anything about this at the federal level for the time being”. The American people understand it’s divisive to the population and we’d rather have a “let the voters of each state decide” solution then continue to increase the temperature by doing anything. It’s politically safe for federal congressional members to say “I believe we need to let the state legislatures work this out first before we take this up again as a law for the entire country.”
As it stands right now, 41 states have abortion restrictions.
- 13 have total abortion bans
- 28 have gestational limits (8 before 18 weeks, and 20 after 18 weeks)
9 states and D.C. have no limits whatsoever.
https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/state-policies-abortion-bans#:~:text=shortly%20after%20birth.-,Highlights,bans%20based%20on%20gestational%20duration.
I wouldn’t call that a huge win at the states level for the WHPA advocates.
Now, we are in an election year so that is likely to change up after voting day.
From what I can tell the WHPA advocates are not going to get a states majority anytime soon.
Here’s where I think we most disagree.
I believe by holding the line at saying “We’re leaving it to the states for now” he’s enabling cooler heads to prevail. It’s making everyone have to think about it and accept that reasonable people can disagree with them about this and allow bills like the one you’re proposing here to serve as an example/model for people to look at without being afraid the federal government is going to force a conclusion down on them one way or the other.
If you’re confident that you can get this passed through Congress, then you should be equally confident you get a good number of states to pass it as well.
The first state to put together a framework that most Americans see balances the needs of all the interested parties wins. I believe what you have proposed is a decent kernel to start that framework.
I believe it will benefit from first being adopted by multiple states where it can have its tires kicked by the American people who will watch what its effects actually are.
I think I’ve made my case at this point, and you can see things differently from me here.
What you still haven’t done in my viewpoint is actually layout the process for exactly how you think the Democrats will roll over and accept this when you and I both know full well that what this policy actually says or does is irrelevant to their media and political machinery.