How to fix the entire Pacific Salmon Regeneration,
About 30 years ago while I was in University I traveled to Alaska as many young men did to seek my fortune commercial fishing.
I was lucky enough to be hired and spent the summer on various boats for the various seasons, including a stint on several sport fishing boats of various sizes.
BAD REGULATIONS
At the time I was hugely concerned about just how stupid the fishing regulations were. The types of regulations which I observed and all around me observed which just made no sense and which were clearly hurting the ecosystem and the economy and families were these.
Firstly the regulations allowed the huge factory boats to fish, if memory serves me right this was Tyson seafoods boats. A single ship now caught more fish than a few hundred family owned and operated small boats caught. This had a huge devastating impact on entire fishing towns and their communities. At the time I seem to remember hearing that Tyson and Clinton were close and this was why it was allowed. (But maybe that was just dock gossip)
The next issue which I observed which was hugely detrimental was the by-catch laws. These regulations were utter madness and were purely written from a policing a regulation point of view which never considered the hugely negative environmental outcomes associated with years and years of this policy. For those who don’t know about these laws they basically state that during halibut season (which was 24 hours) you could only keep halibut and any cod or salmon or other species caught had to be thrown back. This sounds reasonable to the layman, until you realize that after being caught at depth and dragged to the surface they always died, so were returned dead. Millions of fish were killed for no good reason at all every year every season just so that law enforcement officers had an easier time monitoring that the laws were being followed regarding limits. So the laws created to limit fish being killed actually had the exact opposite effect and ensured that double the number of fish died each season but only half the fish made it into our food system and were counted.
The seals were starving, the ocean was dying and it was our government who were creating the problem while telling us they were managing our fisheries for future generations.
A generation is 30 years, however 25 years later as an observer of the fishing that generation later I have to give ALL governments a F failing grade. There are not more salmon, there are not more cod, and there are not more halibut.
DECLINE IN SALMON 1867 TO NOW 150 YEARS OF POOR MANAGEMENT
Why do I say this? Last year I returned to Alaska for a 30 year reunion and I went fishing in all my old haunts. However what I found was instead of the same or more salmon I found the exact opposite, the rivers had no fish returning. The fisheries were closing rivers to fishing, even the mighty Kenai river was not immune. I spoke to commercial fishermen, I spoke to Native fishermen, I spoke to sport fishermen, I spoke to hatchery employees, and I asked a lot of questions. 152 years since the first salmon cannery we have watched the numbers plummet.
This year I traveled to Prince Rupert BC Canada and spent a month on the Skeena river system and the ocean fishing. I the mighty slayer of salmon got skunked for the first the time in my life. A month of trying to catch a salmon and due to a regulation in BC that only single barbless hooks may be used the 1 salmon I had on for roughly 2 minutes threw the hook back at me. That regulation was clearly written to try and increase the numbers of fish which get up the river successfully to spawn. This seems reasonable until you realize that the only salmon that were being caught and kept were those caught using gill nets positioned at all the eddies up the river where the fish had to stop and rest.
Now what I have observed in my river and dock side conversations with all being affected by the lack of fish is one very common trait. Everyone wants to blame the other guy, and everyone wants to protect the little he has left, and everyone knows there is no future in fishing for anyone. Yet if over the last 30 years governments had managed for 10% more breeding stock to return year in and year out for that period by now fish stocks would be keeping up with global demand and consumption. However that boat has mathematically sailed now so now we need more drastic measures.
So while I have stated that the government regulations are stupid, I am not blaming the governments, they only react and do what the voters demand and the way regulations are written is to solve a problem, which often leads to unintended consequences far in excess of the original problem.
So let’s not go there.
HOW DO WE WANT OUR LIVES TO BE?
Nearly every single person I have spoken to is in agreement, that they all want to see the salmon returning to the numbers of pre industrial cannery raping the rivers and oceans. All want to be able to catch salmon with their grandchildren in abundance. All want to see a permanent way of life connected to these fish, with the fish supporting their fishing culture and heritage environment and economy.
Let’s more think about what it would take to truly regenerate the salmon fisheries from California to Canada and Alaska. What if we as humans in all our communities and all our counties and countries decided that we would all refrain from catching all salmon for 7 years what would the results be?
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IF WE STOP FISHING COMPLETELY
Depending on the research the figures currently show that between 1 – 4% of eggs laid turn into returning mature fish to breed. So let’s work with this figure. Also salmon return to their rivers to spawn between 2 and 8 years. In fact Washington State appears to have succeeded in making one of the alternate years spawning completely extinct as their pink salmon only return in odd years. Even year runs no longer occur. Also figure that half the returning fish are male so no eggs.
If 1 fish lays 5000 eggs and 0.5% (1% returning) get to lay eggs again, then 25 fish will breed again. If 1% (2% returning) lay eggs we get 50 fish breeding again. While if the current maximum happens we get 2% (4% returning) laying eggs again we get 100 fish breeding. This means that if we completely stopped all fishing then our fish stocks would jump up exponentially by these factors.
1>25>625>15,625>390,625>9,765,625>244,140,625>6,103515,625 (1% of laid eggs returning to breed)
1>50>2500>125,000>6,250,000>312,500,000>15,625,000,000>781,250,000,000 (2% of laid eggs returning to breed)
1>100>10,000>1,000,000>100,000,000>10,000,000,000>1,000,000,000,000>100,000,000,000,000 (4% of laid eggs returning to breed)
I ran these numbers for 7 years to show that with just a 7 year complete moratorium on any catching of salmon from California to Canada and Alaska, the numbers of fish would jump up to pre industrial fishing type of numbers. The stories of not getting feet wet walking over the backs of salmon can be realized again.
I chose 7 years to run the numbers for 2 reasons, by stopping all salmon fishing for 7 years then the chinook salmon would complete a complete breeding cycle. So however many millions of chinook salmon there are would all have the ability to get home and breed, i.e. 1 big repair job done on the entire coast from South to North. As in if a million chinooks returned then in 7 years there would likely be a million times 100, or 100 million times return on investment for having had the patience to wait this long. And whilst this is happening the smaller fish species are having an even larger exponential growth curve. However I believe that the results would actually be far better than these figures as the millions of tons of salmon we currently harvest would likely be a significant contributor to the low percent of eggs that return to spawn and hence the exponential increase would likely be faster.
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Now what could go wrong? Ecologically could this many more fish be to many fish for the river and oceans to support as in the growth of the salmon would be faster than their prey species also increase? This is a possibility but I don’t think it is likely for 3 reasons. 1) Life begets life, more life begets more life is a rule in nature. 2) The dying fish start the whole food chain to feed the cycle, and once in the ocean plankton and krill quantities are to numerous to count and breed even faster than salmon. 3) Historical records from less than a century ago show quantities that today sound like the numbers above.
INDUSTRY TAX AND ECONOMY
Economically what would happen to all the millions of people who depend on this industry financially. They would be devastated by the decision. Well let’s think about this. Firstly we know people adapt. We also know that for the last 100 years the fortunes of all those involved in the lucrative salmon trade have faired poorly as the salmon populations plummeted due to overfishing. We also know that if we don’t halt the decline and fast, being skunked fishing will become the norm until another protein source goes extinct which will benefit no one financially. So not doing anything is not the answer. Now if we were to do this mad crazy thing how could we do it whereby we maintained communities, we maintained the economy etc.? I think that if we kept it simple and decided that the rest of the country would shoulder the burden for 7 years to allow for the complete recovery of the industry this would be a fair thing to ask of each nation. If everyone involved in the salmon fisheries was paid the same as their tax returns showed they earned for the duration of the moratorium then this would keep money in circulation. However to ensure that boats and nets didn’t rust away and knowledge was not lost it would need to have a way to keep people operating even if not actually catching fish. So in the ocean fishermen would continue with cod and halibut etc. and any fleets would continue to run sea trials, just as the navy does keeping prepared for war, but not actually fighting wars. The fleets would have to keep their employee numbers up and do maintenance etc. to get their payments. If a net salesman no longer sold nets he would still be paid based on his tax returns. Natives needing salmon for ceremonies would have to source fish from other oceans, the payments would more than cover this. They would also have to practice their traditions to keep the knowledge alive in ways which respected the need to have all fish return to spawn. With the natives desire to see their traditions stay alive I believe they would be the biggest supporters of this wisdom. Imagine teaching how to make fish traps again using sticks and rocks. The sport fishermen also support a large tourism industry and they would be allowed to continue fishing on a very strict catch and release policy after a photo, this combined with the payment received based on their taxes would ensure money still spent in the rural communities. As far as policing this as all countries and States would have the same moratorium and all Pacific salmon have unique DNA and there are no Pacific Salmon fish farms anyone found with the fish would face a very serious penalty, likely like the current Alaska want not waste not law where you can lose your boat, vehicle home etc. basically anything used to carry out the crime of taking a fish out the water.
SALMON FARMING
The protein market for the salmon has steadily been losing to the farmed salmon, and furthermore we now know that the farmed salmon are a huge environmental pollution confined animal feeding operation (CAFO) which is doing huge harm. This idea would mean a boom for the salmon farms for 7 years and then likely some serious healthy competition likely to put them out of business or clean up their acts in year 8. Not a bad thing. However grocery stores and restaurants would have no problems adjusting as there are still numerous other food sources to market. However in 8 years’ time when there are more humans to feed at least the Pacific Ocean salmon stocks could assist the world to feed itself.
INTERNATIONAL POACHING
What about international fishing waters and Asian, and Russian fleets decimating the salmon while in international waters? Some of this would likely happen but hopefully our governments could have their governments see the wisdom of co-operating and preventing their nationals abusing what will ultimately end up feeding their people also. Sanctions and a strong navy also help.
COST TO THE STATES AND NATIONS
What would the cost be? Well let us be brutally honest, what would the cost be if we don’t do it? Can we afford to limp along for another century with global demand for protein going up so fast. Is there a faster way to realize huge exponential growth in healthy protein to feed a growing demand? I can’t think of one.
Chickens and pigs don’t lay 5000 eggs a year and require no upkeep while they are growing to maturity.
AFTER THE SEVEN (7) YEAR MORATORIUM ON CATCHING SALMON
I believe that all that has been learned by biologists, fisheries and forestry managers over the last 150 years is extremely valuable knowledge. While they have been charged by governments to manage the resources as best they can the policy makers have been trying to juggle many squeaky wheels all demanding a bigger slice of a continually diminishing resource. While everyone has access to the resource everyone thinks someone else is getting to much and that is why they are suffering when in fact everyone has been suffering, but mostly the salmon have been suffering. I believe if everyone knows that no one is now going to get any salmon for 7 years it will quell the noise. Furthermore if the pain of loss of income is overcome by an easy to follow financial compensation package attached to training and continued maintenance of equipment and knowledge then this should also quell dissent as if everyone is in the same boat it is very difficult to cry foul. However during the moratorium on fishing I believe newer regulations will need to be composed utilizing the knowledge gained over the last century. For example bi-catch will need to be eliminated and replaced with a tax.
BI-CATCH TAX STRUCTURES
Firstly when we think about the objective of bi-catch laws they were designed to count how much of a fish species was harvested to then try to calculate what the limits should be to maintain fish stocks. However we know scientifically that the way to manage populations is via the bell shaped curve measuring age and sex of the populations under management. So a healthy population has a few young, many mature and a few very old. As long as the curve is maintained you are harvesting the correct amount. But to measure the curve you must not target any segment of the curve, but should harvest what you find and then keep records. By having a tax on fish caught you can then regulate the future behavior of the fishermen. For example let’s us say for we are wanting a number of halibut caught for the national market, but halibut can be caught by shrimp, cod, and salmon fishermen. If we say that until the number wanted is reached the tax on halibut is 5% and that all fishermen must keep all fish and shrimp they catch. However lets say that the cod numbers caught are nearing the required number then the tax on cod goes up to 50% but that all cod and halibut and shrimp and salmon must be kept. Then the cod numbers get to where they are going to go even closer to the numbers required the tax then goes to 80%. This will completely remove the fisherman’s desire to target the cod in any way shape or form as they will go from an income earned to a break even fish pretty quickly, which are filling up their holds. This way all fish are kept but the fishing strategies will change based on the taxes and the bell shaped curve. Then once the halibut quota has been reached the halibut tax goes up to 90% and hence fishermen will stop targeting them. Cheating and illegal throwing bi-catch back would be easy to monitor, either via cameras on boats or by government spies on the larger boats or both. The same methods apply to the salmon species being targeted. Losing your fishing license would remove the temptation to cheat.
Now after the salmon numbers have rebounded how would we stop a slow steady re-decline back to low numbers. I think by maintaining the current fisheries management protocols but with significant numbers returning being the new goal to maintain despite pressure to increase limits dramatically. Maybe connected to human population growth demands. Have we learned our lessons?
I also think some thought will need to go into whether we want to continue the super fish factories or whether we want to return to vibrant fishing communities in our regulations.
I believe that alongside what the forestry managers are doing to log areas and keep silt from flowing into the rivers via a patchwork effect of harvesting is great more attention needs to be made to increasing beaver populations on the tributaries which support the salmon. Harvesting beaver traditionally is fine, however each pond should have a limit annually of a single beaver being removed as the ponds must be maintained. I found many dead beaver ponds in BC. However I believe those biologists and managers likely have a better idea of how to maintain high stocks once we have collectively taken the bitter pill of returning the fisheries to per industrial harvesting numbers.
NEXT STEPS TO MAKE THE REGENERATION OF THE PACIFIC SALMON A REALITY AND NOT A PIPE DREAM
Firstly in a democracy politicians and hence governments don’t lead, they follow.
Having watched the grumbling of all categories of fishermen and their families grow over the last generation, maybe now if we have a push and really start grumbling more loudly it may finally allow our governments from California to Canada and Alaska and our many First Nations and Native American tribes and bands to finally demand that our governments make a hard decision for our collective good.
If every single person who reads this letter finds time to lobby in some way and start their own loud grumbling about REGENERATE THE PACIFIC SALMON then it should be enough to start being part of the conversation.
Create your own bloggs, create your own lobby groups, create your own clubs, create your own organisations and movements, just make noise with the single goal in mind, we have to stop all Pacific salmon fishing for 7 years and we have to quickly support all those who culturally and financially will be affected by the moratorium on fishing.
However remember many will look at ways of trying to skew the conversation to benefit themselves or their group to the detriment of others, if this happens then nothing will get fixed as this is one of those wicked problems which require the simple holistic solution I have outlined.
The solution is simple a moratorium on all salmon fishing in the Pacific ocean and connected rivers for 7 years. Demand it and let’s see if collectively we have the will power to save the fisheries, the rivers, our communities and our forests our economies and more importantly return salmon to it’s place as a good food to feed humanity into the future.
One final word, any regulations written to achieve this goal will need to have an unintended consequence clause whereby if an unintended negative consequence is identified the law can be quickly reviewed for a solution to the unintended consequence to be found.
This idea sounded far fetched 4 years ago when I originally wrote it but now after having government totally shut businesses down and pay people to survive without jobs for 2 years we all realize it is in fact POSSIBLE. Covid-19 survival measures proved we can do anything to save ourselves if the desire is strong enough. I believe saving our salmon fisheries and creating so much additional protein and healthy omega-3 fats should be reasonable enough for our mass collective actions.